Salamanca UDS 1–2 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Racing Ferrol

11/8/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS42%

×Draw27%

Racing Ferrol31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.09

Salamanca UDS

1.31

Racing Ferrol

1.09

Salamanca UDS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

1.69

creates per match

1.10

1.08

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.69

Racing Ferrol

1.10

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.08

Racing Ferrol

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

69%

Salamanca UDS or Racing Ferrol

73%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

58%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

19%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

73%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

38%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

14%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

66%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

30%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

57%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.69 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.31

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

42%

level

27%

Racing Ferrol scores more

31%

Salamanca UDS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff