Racing Ferrol 0–1 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Racing Ferrol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salamanca UDS

Iván Casado 52'

2/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Racing Ferrol46%

×Draw31%

Salamanca UDS23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.74

Racing Ferrol

1.17

Salamanca UDS

0.74

Racing Ferrol creates 58% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 13 away

1.41

creates per match

0.54

0.94

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.41

Salamanca UDS

0.54

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

0.94

Salamanca UDS

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

77%

Racing Ferrol or Salamanca UDS

69%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

54%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

20%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

69%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

33%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

11%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

52%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

17%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

66%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Salamanca UDS attack 0.54 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

46%

level

31%

Salamanca UDS scores more

23%

Racing Ferrol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

53'

53'

71'

71'

Quique Fornos← Jon García

73'

Álex Camacho← D. Chávez

73'

Uxío da Pena← E. Ohemeng

76'

U. Da Pena

79'

L. Sepúlveda← Javi Navas

Racing

Salamanca

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Emilio Larraz

53'▲Álex López←▼Javi Rey

53'▲J. Peñaloza←▼Beltrán

71'▲Dani Ábalo←▼Elsinho

71'▲Quique Fornos←▼Jon García

Racing Ferrol substitutes

LópezPeñalozaÁbaloFornosLeobaldeViacavaGómezMoserRodríguez

Manager: Lolo Escobar

73'▲Álex Camacho←▼D. Chávez

73'▲Uxío da Pena←▼E. Ohemeng

79'▲L. Sepúlveda←▼Javi Navas

Salamanca UDS substitutes

CamachoPenaSepúlvedaVillaMoraÁlvarezMartínezTéllesBarba