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Salamanca UDS vs Ponferradina II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS64%
×Draw23%
Ponferradina II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.69
Ponferradina II
0.59

Salamanca UDS creates 186% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.82
Ponferradina II
0.84

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
0.35
Ponferradina II
1.56

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Ponferradina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
87%
Salamanca UDS or Ponferradina II
77%
Draw or Ponferradina II
36%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
37%
Ponferradina II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
82%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
50%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
24%
Ponferradina II 1+ goals
45%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
12%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
84%
Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Ponferradina II away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Ponferradina II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ponferradina II attack 0.84 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
64%
level
23%
Ponferradina II scores more
13%

Salamanca UDS at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs Ponferradina II

Salamanca UDS beat Ponferradina II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Villares de la Reina.