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Ponferradina II vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
1/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ponferradina II19%
×Draw26%
Salamanca UDS55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
0.79
Salamanca UDS
1.55

Salamanca UDS creates 96% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
45%
Ponferradina II or Salamanca UDS
74%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
81%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
6%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
55%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
19%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
5%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
79%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
46%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
26%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
19%
level
26%
Salamanca UDS scores more
55%

Salamanca UDS at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Salamanca UDS

Salamanca UDS beat Ponferradina II 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.