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Salamanca UDS vs Lealtad — League #875 2026

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lealtad
Lealtad
A. Martinez 72'
M. Serrano 42'
S. Montes 70'
5/3/2026League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 34Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Salamanca UDS60%
×Draw21%
Lealtad19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
2.01
Lealtad
1.02

Salamanca UDS creates 97% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.42
Lealtad
0.80

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.25
Lealtad
2.60

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Lealtad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
81%
Salamanca UDS or Lealtad
79%
Draw or Lealtad
40%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
36%
Lealtad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
87%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
59%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
32%
Lealtad 1+ goals
64%
Lealtad 2+ goals
27%
Lealtad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
76%
Lealtad (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Lealtad away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.42 + Lealtad defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.01

Lealtad attack 0.80 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
60%
level
21%
Lealtad scores more
19%

Salamanca UDS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
M. Serrano
70'
S. Montes
72'
A. Martinez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Salamanca UDS 2–1 Lealtad

Salamanca UDS beat Lealtad 2-1 in League #875 on May 3, 2026.

Goals: M. Serrano (42'), S. Montes (70'), A. Martinez (72').

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Villares de la Reina.