Lealtad 0–1 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Lealtad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Salamanca UDS

S. Gassama 13'

12/20/2025

League #875 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lealtad36%

×Draw26%

Salamanca UDS38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LealtadExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Lealtad

1.29

Salamanca UDS

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

0.92

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Lealtad

1.25

Salamanca UDS

0.92

allows per match

Lealtad

1.75

Salamanca UDS

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw

62%

Lealtad or Salamanca UDS

74%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

64%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+

16%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals

72%

Lealtad 2+ goals

37%

Lealtad 3+ goals

14%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

74%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

38%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)

49%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.25 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salamanca UDS attack 0.92 + Lealtad defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lealtad scores more

36%

level

26%

Salamanca UDS scores more

38%

Salamanca UDS at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

S. Gassama

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff