Salamanca UDS 4–0 Laguna de Duero: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Laguna de Duero

10/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS73%

×Draw18%

Laguna de Duero9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchLaguna de Duero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.57

Salamanca UDS

2.11

Laguna de Duero

0.57

Salamanca UDS creates 270% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

1.82

creates per match

0.80

0.35

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.82

Laguna de Duero

0.80

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

0.35

Laguna de Duero

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Laguna de Duero →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

91%

Salamanca UDS or Laguna de Duero

82%

Draw or Laguna de Duero

27%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

48%

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

88%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

62%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

35%

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

43%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

11%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

89%

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.11

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

73%

level

18%

Laguna de Duero scores more

Salamanca UDS at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca UDS 4–0 Laguna de Duero

Salamanca UDS beat Laguna de Duero 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.

Salamanca UDS vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca UDS 4–0 Laguna de Duero