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Laguna de Duero vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Laguna de Duero14%
×Draw24%
Salamanca UDS62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
0.61
Salamanca UDS
1.64

Salamanca UDS creates 169% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–214%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
38%
Laguna de Duero or Salamanca UDS
76%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
86%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
3%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
46%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
13%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
2%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
81%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
49%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
18%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.61

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
14%
level
24%
Salamanca UDS scores more
62%

Salamanca UDS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Laguna de Duero 0–2 Salamanca UDS

Salamanca UDS beat Laguna de Duero 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.