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Salamanca UDS vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
CANC
00:00
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
4/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS43%
×Draw29%
Haro Deportivo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.23
Haro Deportivo
0.95

Salamanca UDS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.15
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.00
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
72%
Salamanca UDS or Haro Deportivo
71%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
57%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
19%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
71%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
35%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
13%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
61%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
25%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
60%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
43%
level
29%
Haro Deportivo scores more
28%

Salamanca UDS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca UDS vs Haro Deportivo — Match Preview

Salamanca UDS face Haro Deportivo on April 12, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Salamanca UDS host Haro Deportivo at Estadio El Helmántico.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.