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Haro Deportivo vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
11/24/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Haro Deportivo46%
×Draw27%
Salamanca UDS27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.43
Salamanca UDS
1.02

Haro Deportivo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
Salamanca UDS
1.00

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.04
Salamanca UDS
1.73

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
73%
Haro Deportivo or Salamanca UDS
73%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
54%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
23%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
76%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
42%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
17%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
64%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
27%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
63%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.12 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
46%
level
27%
Salamanca UDS scores more
27%

Haro Deportivo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Haro Deportivo 1–2 Salamanca UDS

Salamanca UDS beat Haro Deportivo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Mazo in Haro.