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Salamanca UDS vs Guijuelo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Guijuelo
Guijuelo
1/30/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS55%
×Draw23%
Guijuelo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.80
Guijuelo
1.04

Salamanca UDS creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.69
Guijuelo
1.00

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.08
Guijuelo
1.92

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Guijuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
78%
Salamanca UDS or Guijuelo
77%
Draw or Guijuelo
45%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
31%
Guijuelo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
83%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
54%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
27%
Guijuelo 1+ goals
65%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
28%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
72%
Guijuelo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.69 + Guijuelo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.80

Guijuelo attack 1.00 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
55%
level
23%
Guijuelo scores more
22%

Salamanca UDS at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Salamanca UDS 2–2 Guijuelo

Salamanca UDS and Guijuelo drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.