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Guijuelo vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
11/1/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Guijuelo36%
×Draw34%
Salamanca UDS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
0.89
Salamanca UDS
0.77

Guijuelo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
0.85
Salamanca UDS
0.54

allows per match

Guijuelo
1.00
Salamanca UDS
0.92

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
71%
Guijuelo or Salamanca UDS
66%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
64%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
13%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
59%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
22%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
6%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
54%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
18%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
55%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 0.85 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Salamanca UDS attack 0.54 + Guijuelo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Guijuelo scores more
36%
level
34%
Salamanca UDS scores more
29%

Guijuelo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Guijuelo 2–0 Salamanca UDS

Guijuelo beat Salamanca UDS 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo in Guijuelo.