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Salamanca UDS vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
CANC
00:00
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
4/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS38%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.24
Cultural Leonesa
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.15
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
65%
Salamanca UDS or Cultural Leonesa
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
62%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
16%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
71%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
35%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
13%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
69%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
33%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
52%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
38%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
35%

Salamanca UDS at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca UDS vs Cultural Leonesa — Match Preview

Salamanca UDS face Cultural Leonesa on April 26, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Salamanca UDS host Cultural Leonesa at Estadio El Helmántico.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.