Cultural Leonesa 3–1 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salamanca UDS

Dani Pichín 90+2'

Dioni 74'

A. Kawaya 55'

Ángel Sánchez 80'

12/6/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa61%

×Draw23%

Salamanca UDS16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.81

Cultural Leonesa

1.82

Salamanca UDS

0.81

Cultural Leonesa creates 125% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.92

creates per match

1.00

0.62

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.92

Salamanca UDS

1.00

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.62

Salamanca UDS

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

84%

Cultural Leonesa or Salamanca UDS

77%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

39%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

36%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

84%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

54%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

27%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

56%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

19%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

79%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.82

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

61%

level

23%

Salamanca UDS scores more

16%

Cultural Leonesa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

A. Kawaya

62'

Dani Pichín← G. Gudiño

70'

Álex Altube← Edu Ubis

70'

Hugo Díaz← U. Torres

74'

Dioni

77'

Giovanni← Rafa Mella

78'

Antonio Martínez← Menudo

80'

Ángel Sánchez

90+1'

Julián Luque← A. Kawaya

90+2'

Dani Pichín

Cultural

Salamanca

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Kawaya

Manager: José Manuel Aira

62'▲Dani Pichín←▼G. Gudiño

78'▲Antonio Martínez←▼Menudo

90+1'▲Julián Luque←▼A. Kawaya

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

PichínMartínezLuqueGalvanEstellésBenitoTheresin

Manager: Aitor Larrazábal

70'▲Álex Altube←▼Edu Ubis

70'▲Hugo Díaz←▼U. Torres

77'▲Giovanni←▼Rafa Mella

Salamanca UDS substitutes

AltubeDíazGiovanniChiapasJiménezÁlvarezZurita