Salamanca UDS 3–0 Coruxo: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coruxo

Carlos Cristeto 90+3'

Jesús Ares 90'

M. Galván 17'

2/9/2025

League #875 · Group 1 - 22Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Salamanca UDS45%

×Draw27%

Coruxo28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchCoruxo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Salamanca UDS

1.40

Coruxo

1.04

Salamanca UDS creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.47

creates per match

0.89

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.47

Coruxo

0.89

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.20

Coruxo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Coruxo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

72%

Salamanca UDS or Coruxo

73%

Draw or Coruxo

55%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

22%

Coruxo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

75%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

41%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

17%

Coruxo 1+ goals

65%

Coruxo 2+ goals

28%

Coruxo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

62%

Coruxo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.47 + Coruxo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Coruxo attack 0.89 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

45%

level

27%

Coruxo scores more

28%

Salamanca UDS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Galván

60'

Jesús Ares← Óscar Lorenzo

67'

Rubén de Tomás← M. Galván

75'

Alberto Villapalos← Antonio Amaro

75'

Álvaro González← S. Emaná

79'

Brais Penela← Willy Ibáñez

79'

Samu Araújo← Naveira

82'

Yago Insua← Fer Martínez

86'

Dani Pereiro← J. Terranova

90'

Jesús Ares

90+3'

Carlos Cristeto

Salamanca

Coruxo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Chiapas

60'▲Jesús Ares←▼Óscar Lorenzo

67'▲Rubén de Tomás←▼M. Galván

75'▲Alberto Villapalos←▼Antonio Amaro

75'▲Álvaro González←▼S. Emaná

Salamanca UDS substitutes

AresTomásVillapalosGonzálezRuizCasadoRodríguez

Manager: David de Dios

79'▲Brais Penela←▼Willy Ibáñez

79'▲Samu Araújo←▼Naveira

82'▲Yago Insua←▼Fer Martínez

86'▲Dani Pereiro←▼J. Terranova

Coruxo substitutes

PenelaAraújoInsuaPereiroAlbertoReyAndriu