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Coruxo vs Salamanca UDS — League #875 2026

Coruxo
Coruxo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
H. Rodriguez 13'
2/1/2026League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 21Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coruxo43%
×Draw29%
Salamanca UDS28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coruxo
1.25
Salamanca UDS
0.94

Coruxo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Coruxo
1.22
Salamanca UDS
0.93

allows per match

Coruxo
0.94
Salamanca UDS
1.27

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw
72%
Coruxo or Salamanca UDS
71%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
57%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+
19%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals
71%
Coruxo 2+ goals
36%
Coruxo 3+ goals
13%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
61%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
24%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)
61%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.22 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Salamanca UDS attack 0.93 + Coruxo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coruxo scores more
43%
level
29%
Salamanca UDS scores more
28%

Coruxo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
H. Rodriguez
67'
M. Gandarillas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coruxo vs Salamanca UDS

Coruxo beat Salamanca UDS 1-0 in League #875 on February 1, 2026.

Goals: H. Rodriguez (13').

The match was played at Campo do Vao in Vigo.