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Salamanca UDS vs Coruxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coruxo
Coruxo
10/25/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS55%
×Draw24%
Coruxo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.68
Coruxo
0.93

Salamanca UDS creates 81% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.69
Coruxo
0.78

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
1.08
Coruxo
1.67

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Coruxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
79%
Salamanca UDS or Coruxo
76%
Draw or Coruxo
45%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
30%
Coruxo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
81%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
50%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
24%
Coruxo 1+ goals
61%
Coruxo 2+ goals
24%
Coruxo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
73%
Coruxo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.69 + Coruxo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Coruxo attack 0.78 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
55%
level
24%
Coruxo scores more
21%

Salamanca UDS at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs Coruxo

Salamanca UDS beat Coruxo 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.