Salamanca UDS 1–2 Calahorra: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Calahorra

Hugo Díaz 37' (pen)

Adrien Goñi 90+4'

Sergio Benito 44'

12/1/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS40%

×Draw31%

Calahorra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.89

Salamanca UDS

1.11

Calahorra

0.89

Salamanca UDS creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.15

Calahorra

0.78

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.00

Calahorra

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Calahorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

71%

Salamanca UDS or Calahorra

69%

Draw or Calahorra

60%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

17%

Calahorra wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

67%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

30%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

10%

Calahorra 1+ goals

59%

Calahorra 2+ goals

22%

Calahorra 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

58%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Calahorra away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.15 + Calahorra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Calahorra attack 0.78 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

40%

level

31%

Calahorra scores more

29%

Salamanca UDS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Hugo DíazPenalty

44'

Sergio Benito

60'

Giovanni← Hugo Díaz

64'

José Ramón← Sergio Benito

71'

U. Torres← Rafa Mella

71'

Cristian Fernández← Fernando Carralero

81'

Adrien Goñi← Joan Rojas

82'

Álex Altube← Edu Ubis

90+4'

Adrien Goñi

Salamanca

Calahorra

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Díaz

▼

Mella

Sánchez

Manager: Aitor Larrazábal

60'▲Giovanni←▼Hugo Díaz

71'▲U. Torres←▼Rafa Mella

82'▲Álex Altube←▼Edu Ubis

Salamanca UDS substitutes

GiovanniTorresAltubeȚîrleaChiapasJiménezZurita

Manager: Miguel Sola

64'▲José Ramón←▼Sergio Benito

71'▲Cristian Fernández←▼Fernando Carralero

81'▲Adrien Goñi←▼Joan Rojas

Calahorra substitutes

RamónFernándezGoñiMorgadoManjónDíazZabal