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Calahorra vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
CANC
00:00
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
4/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Calahorra45%
×Draw27%
Salamanca UDS28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.38
Salamanca UDS
1.02

Calahorra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.02
Salamanca UDS
1.00

allows per match

Calahorra
1.05
Salamanca UDS
1.73

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
72%
Calahorra or Salamanca UDS
73%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
55%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
21%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
75%
Calahorra 2+ goals
40%
Calahorra 3+ goals
16%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
64%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
27%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
62%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Calahorra scores more
45%
level
27%
Salamanca UDS scores more
28%

Calahorra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Calahorra host Salamanca UDS

April 19, 2020: Calahorra take on Salamanca UDS in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Calahorra host Salamanca UDS at Estadio La Planilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.