Salamanca UDS 2–0 Burgos Promesas: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burgos Promesas

11/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS53%

×Draw28%

Burgos Promesas19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchBurgos Promesas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.69

Salamanca UDS

1.38

Burgos Promesas

0.69

Salamanca UDS creates 100% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

1.82

creates per match

1.02

0.35

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.82

Burgos Promesas

1.02

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

0.35

Burgos Promesas

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Burgos Promesas →

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

81%

Salamanca UDS or Burgos Promesas

72%

Draw or Burgos Promesas

47%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

26%

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

75%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

40%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

16%

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

50%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

15%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

74%

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.38

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

53%

level

28%

Burgos Promesas scores more

19%

Salamanca UDS at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs Burgos Promesas

Salamanca UDS beat Burgos Promesas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.

Salamanca UDS vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salamanca UDS vs Burgos Promesas