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Burgos Promesas vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
4/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 28Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burgos Promesas29%
×Draw28%
Salamanca UDS43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.02
Salamanca UDS
1.32

Salamanca UDS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
57%
Burgos Promesas or Salamanca UDS
72%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
71%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
11%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
64%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
27%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
8%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
73%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
38%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
40%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.02

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
29%
level
28%
Salamanca UDS scores more
43%

Salamanca UDS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Salamanca UDS

Salamanca UDS beat Burgos Promesas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3 in Burgos.