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Salamanca UDS vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
2/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS62%
×Draw24%
Becerril Campos15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.70
Becerril Campos
0.69

Salamanca UDS creates 146% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 97 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.82
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
0.35
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
85%
Salamanca UDS or Becerril Campos
76%
Draw or Becerril Campos
38%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
35%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
82%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
51%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
24%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
50%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
15%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
81%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
62%
level
24%
Becerril Campos scores more
15%

Salamanca UDS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca UDS 0–0 Becerril Campos

Salamanca UDS and Becerril Campos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.