Becerril Campos vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Becerril Campos21%
Salamanca UDS54%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Salamanca UDS creates 81% more chances
Season form · 97 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Becerril Campos ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches
Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.85
Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Salamanca UDS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Atlético Tordesillas
Guijuelo
Cristo Atlético
Palencia CF
UD Santa Marta
Atlético Mansillés
Almazán
Mirandés II
La Virgen del Camino
Cultural Leonesa II
Villaralbo
Arandina
Colegios Diocesanos
Bembibre
Unionistas II
MojadosBecerril Campos
Numancia IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Becerril Campos host Salamanca UDS on Sunday, 24 September 2023 at 16:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019/2020 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Becerril Campos 0–4 Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS beat Becerril Campos 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 24, 2023.
Goals: S. Gassama (26'), Alberto Durán (37'), Antonio Amaro (84'), Jorge de Vicente (90+3').
The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.