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Salamanca UDS vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS54%
×Draw27%
Atlético Tordesillas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.45
Atlético Tordesillas
0.74

Salamanca UDS creates 96% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.82
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
0.35
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
81%
Salamanca UDS or Atlético Tordesillas
73%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
46%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
77%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
42%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
54%
level
27%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
19%

Salamanca UDS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Salamanca UDS 0–0 Atlético Tordesillas

Salamanca UDS and Atlético Tordesillas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Salamanca.