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Atlético Tordesillas vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 30Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas30%
×Draw28%
Salamanca UDS42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.00
Salamanca UDS
1.25

Salamanca UDS creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
58%
Atlético Tordesillas or Salamanca UDS
72%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
70%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
11%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
8%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
71%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
36%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
41%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.00

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
30%
level
28%
Salamanca UDS scores more
42%

Salamanca UDS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Tordesillas 2–1 Salamanca UDS

Atlético Tordesillas beat Salamanca UDS 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.