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Salamanca UDS vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salamanca UDS49%
×Draw28%
Atlético Astorga22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca UDS
1.35
Atlético Astorga
0.81

Salamanca UDS creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Salamanca UDS
1.82
Atlético Astorga
1.27

allows per match

Salamanca UDS
0.35
Atlético Astorga
0.89

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par
Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Atlético Astorga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw
78%
Salamanca UDS or Atlético Astorga
72%
Draw or Atlético Astorga
51%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
74%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
39%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.35

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more
49%
level
28%
Atlético Astorga scores more
22%

Salamanca UDS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salamanca UDS 2 – 0 Atlético Astorga

Salamanca UDS beat Atlético Astorga 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Helmántico in Villares de la Reina.