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Atlético Astorga vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Astorga33%
×Draw27%
Salamanca UDS40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.14
Salamanca UDS
1.29

Salamanca UDS creates 13% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
60%
Atlético Astorga or Salamanca UDS
73%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
67%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
13%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
11%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
72%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
37%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
45%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.14

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
33%
level
27%
Salamanca UDS scores more
40%

Salamanca UDS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Astorga 3 – 2 Salamanca UDS

Atlético Astorga beat Salamanca UDS 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.