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Salamanca II vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Salamanca II
Salamanca II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Ávila
Real Ávila
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II33%
×Draw30%
Real Ávila37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salamanca II
1.02
Real Ávila
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

creates per match

Salamanca II
1.13
Real Ávila
1.14

allows per match

Salamanca II
1.06
Real Ávila
0.91

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par
Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Real Ávila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw
63%
Salamanca II or Real Ávila
70%
Draw or Real Ávila
67%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+
13%
Real Ávila wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals
64%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
27%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
8%
Real Ávila 1+ goals
67%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
30%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)
47%
Real Ávila (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Salamanca II scores more
33%
level
30%
Real Ávila scores more
37%

Real Ávila at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salamanca II vs Real Ávila

Real Ávila beat Salamanca II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.