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Real Ávila vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Real Ávila51%
×Draw27%
Salamanca II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.46
Salamanca II
0.88

Real Ávila creates 66% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 61 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
77%
Real Ávila or Salamanca II
73%
Draw or Salamanca II
49%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
25%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
77%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
43%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
18%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
59%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
22%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
69%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Ávila scores more
51%
level
27%
Salamanca II scores more
23%

Real Ávila at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Ávila 1 – 2 Salamanca II

Salamanca II beat Real Ávila 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.