Salam Zgharta 0–0 Safa: Result & Stats

Salam Zgharta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Safa

12/4/2022

Premier League · Round 10Salam Zgharta Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta24%

×Draw25%

Safa50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salam ZghartaExpected goals in this matchSafa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.57

Salam Zgharta

1.01

Safa

1.57

Safa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

0.67

creates per match

1.31

1.83

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Salam Zgharta

0.67

Safa

1.31

allows per match

Salam Zgharta

1.83

Safa

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Safa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw

50%

Salam Zgharta or Safa

75%

Draw or Safa

76%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+

9%

Safa wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals

64%

Salam Zgharta 2+ goals

27%

Salam Zgharta 3+ goals

8%

Safa 1+ goals

79%

Safa 2+ goals

46%

Safa 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)

33%

Safa (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Safa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Safa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Safa attack 1.31 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more

24%

level

25%

Safa scores more

50%

Safa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff