Safa 1–1 Salam Zgharta: Result & Stats

Safa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salam Zgharta

3/10/2023

Premier League · Relegation Round - 10Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Safa63%

×Draw22%

Salam Zgharta15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SafaExpected goals in this matchSalam Zgharta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.78

Safa

1.88

Salam Zgharta

0.78

Safa creates 141% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

1.51

creates per match

0.47

1.08

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Safa

1.51

Salam Zgharta

0.47

allows per match

Safa

1.08

Salam Zgharta

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Safa+0.00on par

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Safa ↓

Salam Zgharta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Safa or draw

85%

Safa or Salam Zgharta

78%

Draw or Salam Zgharta

37%

Winning margin

Safa wins by 2+

38%

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Safa 1+ goals

85%

Safa 2+ goals

56%

Safa 3+ goals

29%

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals

54%

Salam Zgharta 2+ goals

18%

Salam Zgharta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Safa (draw refunded)

81%

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Safa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 65 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Safa attack 1.51 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.88

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Safa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Safa scores more

63%

level

22%

Salam Zgharta scores more

15%

Safa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff