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Salam Zgharta vs Bourj — Premier League 2019

Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bourj
Bourj
10/25/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta23%
×Draw27%
Bourj50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salam Zgharta
0.87
Bourj
1.43

Bourj creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 57 away

creates per match

Salam Zgharta
0.67
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Salam Zgharta
1.83
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw
50%
Salam Zgharta or Bourj
73%
Draw or Bourj
77%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
7%
Bourj wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
58%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
22%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
6%
Bourj 1+ goals
76%
Bourj 2+ goals
42%
Bourj 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
31%
Bourj (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Bourj attack 1.02 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more
23%
level
27%
Bourj scores more
50%

Bourj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salam Zgharta vs Bourj

Salam Zgharta and Bourj drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Beirut.