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Bourj vs Salam Zgharta — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
9/3/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bourj57%
×Draw24%
Salam Zgharta19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
1.69
Salam Zgharta
0.85

Bourj creates 99% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Salam Zgharta
0.47

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Salam Zgharta
2.26

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Salam Zgharta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
81%
Bourj or Salam Zgharta
76%
Draw or Salam Zgharta
43%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
32%
Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
82%
Bourj 2+ goals
50%
Bourj 3+ goals
24%
Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
57%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
21%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
75%
Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bourj scores more
57%
level
24%
Salam Zgharta scores more
19%

Bourj at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bourj 2–1 Salam Zgharta

Bourj beat Salam Zgharta 2-1 in Premier League on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.