Salam Zgharta 2–1 Al Hikma: Result & Stats

Salam Zgharta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Hikma

2/19/2023

Premier League · Relegation Round - 7Salam Zgharta Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta27%

×Draw28%

Al Hikma46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salam ZghartaExpected goals in this matchAl Hikma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.34

Salam Zgharta

0.95

Al Hikma

1.34

Al Hikma creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 60 away

0.67

creates per match

0.85

1.83

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Salam Zgharta

0.67

Al Hikma

0.85

allows per match

Salam Zgharta

1.83

Al Hikma

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Al Hikma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Al Hikma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw

54%

Salam Zgharta or Al Hikma

72%

Draw or Al Hikma

73%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+

9%

Al Hikma wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals

61%

Salam Zgharta 2+ goals

25%

Salam Zgharta 3+ goals

7%

Al Hikma 1+ goals

74%

Al Hikma 2+ goals

39%

Al Hikma 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)

37%

Al Hikma (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Al Hikma away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Al Hikma defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.95

Al Hikma attack 0.85 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more

27%

level

28%

Al Hikma scores more

46%

Al Hikma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Hikma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff