Al Hikma 0–1 Salam Zgharta: Result & Stats

Al Hikma

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salam Zgharta

9/18/2022

Premier League · Round 3Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Hikma55%

×Draw24%

Salam Zgharta21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HikmaExpected goals in this matchSalam Zgharta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.94

Al Hikma

1.69

Salam Zgharta

0.94

Al Hikma creates 80% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.11

creates per match

0.47

1.42

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Al Hikma

1.11

Salam Zgharta

0.47

allows per match

Al Hikma

1.42

Salam Zgharta

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hikma+0.00on par

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hikma ↓

Salam Zgharta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Hikma or draw

79%

Al Hikma or Salam Zgharta

76%

Draw or Salam Zgharta

45%

Winning margin

Al Hikma wins by 2+

30%

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Hikma 1+ goals

82%

Al Hikma 2+ goals

50%

Al Hikma 3+ goals

24%

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals

61%

Salam Zgharta 2+ goals

24%

Salam Zgharta 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Hikma (draw refunded)

72%

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hikma at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hikma attack 1.11 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Al Hikma defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Hikma scores more

55%

level

24%

Salam Zgharta scores more

21%

Al Hikma at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Hikma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff