Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Salam Zgharta vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli — Premier League 2019

Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
3/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 9Salam Zgharta Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta31%
×Draw28%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salam Zgharta
1.04
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.26

Al Akhaa Al Ahli creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 29 away

creates per match

Salam Zgharta
0.67
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.69

allows per match

Salam Zgharta
1.83
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.41

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par
Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Al Akhaa Al Ahli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw
59%
Salam Zgharta or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
72%
Draw or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
69%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
12%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
65%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
28%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
9%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
72%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
36%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
42%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.69 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more
31%
level
28%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
41%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Akhaa Al Ahli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salam Zgharta vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli

Salam Zgharta and Al Akhaa Al Ahli drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Salam Zgharta Club Stadium in Zgharta.