Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Salam Zgharta

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

CANC

12:15

Salam Zgharta

11/8/2019

Premier League · Round 4Amin Abdelnour Stadium (Bhamdoun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli56%

×Draw25%

Salam Zgharta19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Akhaa Al AhliExpected goals in this matchSalam Zgharta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.79

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

1.58

Salam Zgharta

0.79

Al Akhaa Al Ahli creates 100% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

0.90

creates per match

0.47

1.10

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

0.90

Salam Zgharta

0.47

allows per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

1.10

Salam Zgharta

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Akhaa Al Ahli ↓

Salam Zgharta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or draw

81%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or Salam Zgharta

75%

Draw or Salam Zgharta

44%

Winning margin

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+

30%

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals

79%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals

47%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals

21%

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals

55%

Salam Zgharta 2+ goals

19%

Salam Zgharta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)

75%

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.90 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.58

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more

56%

level

25%

Salam Zgharta scores more

19%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Akhaa Al Ahli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff