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Sakhalinets vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
6/4/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 11Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sakhalinets29%
×Draw25%
FK Sokol Saratov46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalinets
1.18
FK Sokol Saratov
1.55

FK Sokol Saratov creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sakhalinets
1.62
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Sakhalinets
1.73
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Sakhalinets+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalinets ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sakhalinets or draw
54%
Sakhalinets or FK Sokol Saratov
75%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
71%

Winning margin

Sakhalinets wins by 2+
12%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sakhalinets 1+ goals
69%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
33%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
12%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
79%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
46%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
39%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalinets at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalinets attack 1.62 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.18

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Sakhalinets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sakhalinets scores more
29%
level
25%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
46%

FK Sokol Saratov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Sakhalinets 0–3 FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Sakhalinets 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.