FK Sokol Saratov 1–2 Sakhalinets: Result & Stats

FK Sokol Saratov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sakhalinets

5/5/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov39%

×Draw26%

Sakhalinets35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Sokol SaratovExpected goals in this matchSakhalinets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

FK Sokol Saratov

1.38

Sakhalinets

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 25 away

1.75

creates per match

1.80

0.77

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov

1.75

Sakhalinets

1.80

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov

0.77

Sakhalinets

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Sakhalinets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw

65%

FK Sokol Saratov or Sakhalinets

74%

Draw or Sakhalinets

61%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

18%

Sakhalinets wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

75%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

40%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

16%

Sakhalinets 1+ goals

72%

Sakhalinets 2+ goals

37%

Sakhalinets 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

53%

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Sakhalinets away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.75 + Sakhalinets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sakhalinets attack 1.80 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

39%

level

26%

Sakhalinets scores more

35%

FK Sokol Saratov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff