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Sakhalin vs FK Spartak Tambov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
10/15/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Sakhalin36%
×Draw27%
FK Spartak Tambov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
1.21
FK Spartak Tambov
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 63 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
FK Spartak Tambov
1.41

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
FK Spartak Tambov
1.13

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
63%
Sakhalin or FK Spartak Tambov
73%
Draw or FK Spartak Tambov
64%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
15%
FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
70%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
34%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
12%
FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
71%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
35%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
49%
FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sakhalin scores more
36%
level
27%
FK Spartak Tambov scores more
37%

FK Spartak Tambov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs FK Spartak Tambov

FK Spartak Tambov beat Sakhalin 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.