FK Spartak Tambov 2–1 Sakhalin: Result & Stats

FK Spartak Tambov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sakhalin

7/1/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FK Spartak Tambov55%

×Draw24%

Sakhalin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Spartak TambovExpected goals in this matchSakhalin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.90

FK Spartak Tambov

1.67

Sakhalin

0.90

FK Spartak Tambov creates 86% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 70 away

1.47

creates per match

0.77

1.03

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

FK Spartak Tambov

1.47

Sakhalin

0.77

allows per match

FK Spartak Tambov

1.03

Sakhalin

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Tambov ↓

Sakhalin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Spartak Tambov or draw

80%

FK Spartak Tambov or Sakhalin

76%

Draw or Sakhalin

45%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+

30%

Sakhalin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals

81%

FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals

50%

FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals

23%

Sakhalin 1+ goals

59%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

23%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)

73%

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.47 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FK Spartak Tambov scores more

55%

level

24%

Sakhalin scores more

20%

FK Spartak Tambov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff