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Sakhalin vs Dinamo Bryansk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
10/19/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sakhalin30%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Bryansk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
1.03
Dinamo Bryansk
1.29

Dinamo Bryansk creates 25% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
Dinamo Bryansk
1.53

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
Dinamo Bryansk
0.77

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
58%
Sakhalin or Dinamo Bryansk
72%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
70%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
11%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
64%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
28%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
41%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.53 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sakhalin scores more
30%
level
28%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
42%

Dinamo Bryansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs Dinamo Bryansk

Sakhalin and Dinamo Bryansk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.