Dinamo Bryansk 2–0 Sakhalin: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sakhalin

8/15/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk67%

×Draw22%

Sakhalin11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchSakhalin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.57

Dinamo Bryansk

1.80

Sakhalin

0.57

Dinamo Bryansk creates 216% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 70 away

1.74

creates per match

0.77

0.38

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.74

Sakhalin

0.77

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.38

Sakhalin

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Sakhalin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

89%

Dinamo Bryansk or Sakhalin

78%

Draw or Sakhalin

33%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

40%

Sakhalin wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

54%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

27%

Sakhalin 1+ goals

43%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

11%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

86%

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.38 · 47 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.74 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

67%

level

22%

Sakhalin scores more

11%

Dinamo Bryansk at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff