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Sakaryaspor vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Sakaryaspor
Sakaryaspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
12/14/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 16Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sakaryaspor43%
×Draw26%
Iğdır FK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakaryaspor
1.45
Iğdır FK
1.21

Sakaryaspor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sakaryaspor
1.56
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Sakaryaspor
1.08
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw
68%
Sakaryaspor or Iğdır FK
74%
Draw or Iğdır FK
57%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+
21%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals
77%
Sakaryaspor 2+ goals
42%
Sakaryaspor 3+ goals
18%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
70%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
34%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)
57%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.56 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more
43%
level
26%
Iğdır FK scores more
32%

Sakaryaspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakaryaspor vs Iğdır FK

Sakaryaspor beat Iğdır FK 2-1 in 1. Lig on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu in Adapazarı.