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Iğdır FK vs Sakaryaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sakaryaspor
Sakaryaspor
4/21/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 35Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Iğdır FK52%
×Draw24%
Sakaryaspor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
1.66
Sakaryaspor
1.05

Iğdır FK creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 71 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
1.53
Sakaryaspor
1.15

allows per match

Iğdır FK
0.95
Sakaryaspor
1.79

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Sakaryaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
76%
Iğdır FK or Sakaryaspor
76%
Draw or Sakaryaspor
48%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
28%
Sakaryaspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
81%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
49%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
23%
Sakaryaspor 1+ goals
65%
Sakaryaspor 2+ goals
28%
Sakaryaspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
68%
Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sakaryaspor attack 1.15 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
52%
level
24%
Sakaryaspor scores more
24%

Iğdır FK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Iğdır FK 4–0 Sakaryaspor

Iğdır FK beat Sakaryaspor 4-0 in 1. Lig on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at Iğdır Şehir Stadyumu in Iğdır.