SAK Klagenfurt 3–1 Köttmannsdorf: Result & Stats

SAK Klagenfurt

FT

3 – 1

Köttmannsdorf

3/23/2024

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 17Sportplatz Welzenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

SAK Klagenfurt51%

×Draw22%

Köttmannsdorf27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SAK KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchKöttmannsdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.36

SAK Klagenfurt

1.94

Köttmannsdorf

1.36

SAK Klagenfurt creates 43% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 91 away

1.89

creates per match

1.42

1.30

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

SAK Klagenfurt

1.89

Köttmannsdorf

1.42

allows per match

SAK Klagenfurt

1.30

Köttmannsdorf

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAK Klagenfurt ↓

Köttmannsdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

SAK Klagenfurt or draw

73%

SAK Klagenfurt or Köttmannsdorf

78%

Draw or Köttmannsdorf

49%

Winning margin

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

29%

Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

86%

SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

58%

SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

30%

Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals

74%

Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals

39%

Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

65%

Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Köttmannsdorf away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.98 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.89 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.94

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.42 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SAK Klagenfurt scores more

51%

level

22%

Köttmannsdorf scores more

27%

SAK Klagenfurt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SAK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff