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Köttmannsdorf vs SAK Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Köttmannsdorf
Köttmannsdorf
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
4/13/2025Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 21Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Köttmannsdorf41%
×Draw25%
SAK Klagenfurt34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köttmannsdorf
1.55
SAK Klagenfurt
1.39

Köttmannsdorf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 61 away

creates per match

Köttmannsdorf
1.63
SAK Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

Köttmannsdorf
1.41
SAK Klagenfurt
1.48

finishing

Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par
SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köttmannsdorf ↓

SAK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Köttmannsdorf or draw
66%
Köttmannsdorf or SAK Klagenfurt
75%
Draw or SAK Klagenfurt
59%

Winning margin

Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+
20%
SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals
79%
Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals
46%
Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals
20%
SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
75%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
40%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)
55%
SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köttmannsdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

SAK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.63 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Köttmannsdorf scores more
41%
level
25%
SAK Klagenfurt scores more
34%

Köttmannsdorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Köttmannsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Köttmannsdorf 2–2 SAK Klagenfurt

Köttmannsdorf and SAK Klagenfurt drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf in Köttmannsdorf.