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Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
3 – 1
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
11/1/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 16Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész31%
×Draw24%
Putnok VSE45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.38
Putnok VSE
1.71

Putnok VSE creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
55%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Putnok VSE
76%
Draw or Putnok VSE
69%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
14%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
75%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
40%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
16%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
82%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
51%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
41%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
31%
level
24%
Putnok VSE scores more
45%

Putnok VSE at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Sajóbábony Vegyész 3–1 Putnok VSE

Sajóbábony Vegyész beat Putnok VSE 3-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.