Putnok VSE 4–1 Sajóbábony Vegyész: Result & Stats

Putnok VSE

FT

4 – 1

Sajóbábony Vegyész

5/12/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 35Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Putnok VSE74%

×Draw15%

Sajóbábony Vegyész11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Putnok VSEExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.02

Putnok VSE

2.81

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.02

Putnok VSE creates 175% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

1.99

creates per match

0.89

1.16

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Putnok VSE

1.99

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Putnok VSE

1.16

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw

89%

Putnok VSE or Sajóbábony Vegyész

85%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

26%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

53%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

94%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

76%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

52%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

64%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

27%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

87%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.81

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Putnok VSE scores more

74%

level

15%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

11%

Putnok VSE at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff