Sajóbábony Vegyész 3–0 Gyöngyös: Result & Stats

Sajóbábony Vegyész

FT

3 – 0

Gyöngyös

8/2/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 1Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész46%

×Draw23%

Gyöngyös31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sajóbábony VegyészExpected goals in this matchGyöngyös

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.46

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.80

Gyöngyös

1.46

Sajóbábony Vegyész creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

1.21

creates per match

1.14

1.79

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.21

Gyöngyös

1.14

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.79

Gyöngyös

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Gyöngyös →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw

69%

Sajóbábony Vegyész or Gyöngyös

77%

Draw or Gyöngyös

54%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

25%

Gyöngyös wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

83%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

54%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

27%

Gyöngyös 1+ goals

77%

Gyöngyös 2+ goals

43%

Gyöngyös 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

59%

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.80

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

46%

level

23%

Gyöngyös scores more

31%

Sajóbábony Vegyész at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sajóbábony Vegyész will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff